NBA Insiders Assess Offseason Winners and Losers, Project LeBron's Future, Finals Matchup

Cooper Flagg: 18
Dylan Harper: 1
Ace Bailey: 1

Flagg again dominated this question, though former Rutgers teammates Harper and Bailey each received a single vote.

"As a point guard landing with Victor," a Western Conference scout said of Harper, "there's a clear path to success. If Cooper went to a bad team, he'd be the obvious answer. But his landing spot could cause him to develop differently."

"He reminds me a lot of Anthony Edwards [entering the league]," an East executive said of Bailey. "Super talented, but a lot of questions. But the ease with which he creates shots at his size is something you can't teach."

Where will LeBron James be at the start of the 2026-27 season?

Los Angeles Lakers: 7
Retired: 5
Cleveland Cavaliers: 4
Golden State Warriors: 2
Dallas Mavericks: 1
Miami Heat: 1

As James enters his 23rd NBA season, and after the drama that played out after he opted into his contract this summer, there has been plenty of speculation about his future. There was far from any sort of consensus among the respondents here, however, with one Eastern Conference scout summing up the general sentiment well.

"If I was taking the Lakers or the field," they said, "I'd take the field. But I'll take the Lakers over any specific team, especially given they are the one with a clear path to pay him."

There also, though, were a few who thought this year will be James' final trip around The Association. "It just feels like it's where it's going to end," a Western Conference scout said.

Which team had the best offseason?

Atlanta Hawks: 7
Denver Nuggets: 4
Houston Rockets: 3
Oklahoma City Thunder: 2
Orlando Magic: 2
LA Clippers: 1
Los Angeles Lakers: 1

After largely being an afterthought in NBA circles the past several years since making the 2021 East finals, the Hawks earned plenty of praise for their busy offseason. Atlanta traded for Kristaps Porzingis, signed Nickiel Alexander-Walker and landed one of the most valuable trade assets in the league: an expected lottery pick from the New Orleans Pelicans in a draft night deal.

"I think they'll be one of the best teams in the East and they utilized every tool in their toolbox," one executive said.

Denver also received a lot of credit for giving Jokic some much-needed help off the bench in the form of Bruce Brown Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas, plus getting Cameron Johnson from the Brooklyn Nets for Michael Porter Jr., while Houston got credit for landing Kevin Durant in a deal with the Phoenix Suns.

Which team had the worst offseason?

New Orleans Pelicans: 9
Phoenix Suns: 4
Sacramento Kings: 2
Chicago Bulls: 1
Los Angeles Lakers: 1
Memphis Grizzlies: 1
Philadelphia 76ers: 1
Portland Trail Blazers: 1

The Pelicans more than doubled anyone else's total, with voters not only disliking the price they paid on draft night to land Derik Queen, but also taking on Jordan Poole in exchange for C.J. McCollum's expiring deal. "I just don't get what they are doing," one East executive said.

The other two teams to receive multiple votes, the Suns and Kings, were knocked for their overall direction.

"Whatever chance they may have had is gone now," one East executive said of Phoenix.

What was the best move of the offseason?

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Rockets trading for Durant: 11
Magic trading for Desmond Bane: 5
Hawks trading for the Pelicans' draft pick: 2
Nuggets trading for Cam Johnson: 1
Lakers re-signing Doncic: 1

The biggest name to change teams this offseason was also deemed the best move of the summer by a majority of voters, as Durant going to Houston easily was the top choice.

"Their deficiency in the playoffs was not having a go-to scorer," a West scout said, "and now they have Kevin Durant."

The other heavy vote-getter was Orlando adding Bane, giving a team devoid of shooting in the backcourt a career 41% 3-point shooter on more than six attempts per game.

"He's the perfect complimentary player [to] grow with their core," a West assistant coach said.

What was the worst move of the offseason?

Pelicans trading an unprotected pick swap: 11
Trail Blazers trading for Jrue Holiday: 3
Suns waiving and stretching Bradley Beal: 3
Pacers losing Myles Turner in free agency: 1
Suns trading for Mark Williams: 1
Kings signing Dennis Schroder: 1

The Pelicans sending out an unprotected swap in the next year to move up 10 spots back in June's draft took the top spot handily, but the two other moves to receive more than a single vote were Portland trading for Jrue Holiday and the Suns choosing to waive and stretch the nearly $100 million on Bradley Beal's contract.

"I just don't get what they are trying to do," a West assistant coach said of Portland's Holiday trade. "You can't get enough time for all of their guards."

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Myles Turner signed with Bucks to stay in a competitive situation

Myles Turner talks about why he left the Pacers to join the Bucks in his introductory news conference.

What was the most surprising move of the offseason?

Turner to Bucks/Lillard waive and stretch: 16
Hawks signing Alexander-Walker: 1
Knicks firing coach Tom Thibodeau: 1
Trail Blazers trading for Holiday: 1
Jonathan Kuminga still with the Warriors: 1

The combination of the Milwaukee Bucks signing Myles Turner, and doing so by waiving and stretching the remaining $112 million on Damian Lillard's contract, easily took the top spot, given the record amount of dead money the Bucks now have on their books and the fact that Turner was widely expected to return to Indiana.

What was the biggest trend of the offseason?

Teams trying to avoid the aprons/financial flexibility: 7
Teams prioritizing size: 6
Teams prioritizing youth and depth: 4
Free agency continuing to be a nonfactor: 1
Restricted free agents getting squeezed: 1
Waiving and stretching contracts: 1

For the third straight year, the dreaded "second apron" was named as the biggest trend of the offseason, with several voters pointing to teams either making sure they got below it if they aren't going to be contenders (the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns) or having to work around it (the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks).

Almost as many people, however, pointed to the push across the league to seek out size, after the idea of "small ball" had dominated the conversation for a decade.

"Size matters now," an Eastern Conference scout said, while also echoing the idea several others pointed to about offensive rebounding mattering more than it has in a long time. And, after seeing the Thunder and Pacers reach the NBA Finals on the backs of youth and depth, several people across the league pointed to teams eschewing veterans for youth and depth as a key takeaway from the summer.

Who will win each conference and the NBA title?

East

Cleveland Cavaliers: 9
New York Knicks: 7
Atlanta Hawks: 2
Milwaukee Bucks: 1
Orlando Magic: 1

West

Oklahoma City Thunder: 18
Denver Nuggets: 2

NBA title

Oklahoma City Thunder: 18
Denver Nuggets: 2

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It's no surprise that the Thunder, coming off winning the NBA title and having a roster with only two players over 27 years old, is the heavy favorite to win the title. But while Denver received a couple votes, due to the combination of Nikola Jokic and that souped-up bench unit, the fact that there wasn't a single vote for an East team to win the title accurately reflects the gulf between the two conferences.

And while no one was picked to win the title out of the East, virtually everyone struggled to come up with a team they felt good enough about to come out of the conference. For some, it was because they felt the Knicks and Cavs were evenly matched. Some went with New York because of its toughness and depth, while others went with Cleveland because of its perceived higher top-end talent and better defensive versatility led by reigning DPOY Evan Mobley.

But the perceived issues with both of those top contenders is what led to several others to tap either the Hawks, Bucks or Magic as their choice.

"I think those guys fit together really well now," one East executive said of Orlando. "And I don't have as much faith as everyone else does in Cleveland and New York."

"They have a lot of what-ifs," one West assistant coach said of the Hawks, "but Trae [Young] is really good and compared to a lot of his peers, he has had real playoff success that he doesn't get enough credit for."

And for one West assistant, the choice was simple. "I'm just betting on Giannis, and against the rest of the East."